Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $566 held · ends Dec 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$566.04

Combined PnL

-$25.76

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$565.67

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$7.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$18.72

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99¢	$323.89	$323.84	-$0.05	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$58.44	$59.4	+$0.96	25% 92-281 (373)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$58.26	$58.5	+$0.24	40% 1475-2199 (3674)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$48.92	$49.04	+$0.12	62% 471-291 (762)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$46.66	$40.25	-$6.4	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.69	-$0.01	27% 949-2550 (3499)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$21.85	$4.95	-$1.9	48% 126-137 (263)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$91.96	$0.21	-$14.6	30% 2961-6982 (9943)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.33	$0.12	-$1.21	— 3-14 (17)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$3.24	$0.03	-$2.91	5% 4-73 (77)

cigarettes

Invested

$323.89

Value

$323.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$58.44

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$0.96

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$58.26

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$0.24

Record

40%

1475-2199 (3674)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$48.92

Value

$49.04

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$46.66

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$6.4

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.69

PnL

-$0.01

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$21.85

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$1.9

Record

48%

126-137 (263)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.96

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$14.6

Record

30%

2961-6982 (9943)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.21

Record

—

3-14 (17)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.91

Record

4-73 (77)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.