Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $902 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$901.65
-$30.18
82.2¢ → 85.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
774h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 81.4¢ | $582.49 | $530.96 | -$15.36 | 15% 435-2472 (2907) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $630.82 | $231.13 | -$10.04 | 35% 17800-33165 (50965) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.2¢ | $132.72 | $146.16 | -$92.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $116.92 | $84.97 | +$82.45 | |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $78.39 | $64.68 | -$3.2 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $34.57 | $36.84 | -$0.76 | 51% 540-528 (1068) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $32.43 | $21.15 | -$11.28 | 43% 2149-2803 (4952) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $61.13 | $14.19 | +$1.06 | 20% 2535-10042 (12577) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $14.4 | $2.7 | -$0.63 | 53% 8051-7154 (15205) |
IstarothInvested
$582.49
Value
$530.96
PnL
-$15.36
Record
15%
435-2472 (2907)
Invested
$630.82
Value
$231.13
PnL
-$10.04
Record
35%
17800-33165 (50965)
Both legs:
Lucerys<$100Invested
$78.39
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$3.2
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$34.57
Value
$36.84
PnL
-$0.76
Record
51%
540-528 (1068)
Invested
$32.43
Value
$21.15
PnL
-$11.28
Record
43%
2149-2803 (4952)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$61.13
Value
$14.19
PnL
+$1.06
Record
20%
2535-10042 (12577)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.63
Record
53%
8051-7154 (15205)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.