Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $189 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$189.12
$10.41
73.9¢ → 76.4¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.6¢ | $143.42 | $154.19 | +$10.77 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $19.17 | $17.34 | -$1.84 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $10.56 | $12.87 | +$2.32 | 48% 90-97 (187) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $5.56 | $4.72 | -$0.84 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
Invested
$143.42
Value
$154.19
PnL
+$10.77
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$19.17
Value
$17.34
PnL
-$1.84
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$12.87
PnL
+$2.32
Record
48%
90-97 (187)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.