Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $201 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$200.81

Combined PnL

-$29.93

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$200.47

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$7.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$22.34

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.51	$49.29	-$0.22	45% 521-645 (1166)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$68.04	$47.02	-$1.01	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$46.54	$40.11	-$6.43	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.97	+$1.47	26% 871-2505 (3376)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29	$29.09	+$0.09	25% 92-281 (373)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$21.48	$4.99	-$1.49	48% 126-137 (263)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$80.77	$0.19	-$15.45	30% 2961-6982 (9943)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$5.71	$0.12	-$5.59	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.33	$0.03	-$1.3	— 3-14 (17)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$49.51

Value

$49.29

PnL

-$0.22

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$68.04

Value

$47.02

PnL

-$1.01

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$46.54

Value

$40.11

PnL

-$6.43

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.47

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$29.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$21.48

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$1.49

Record

48%

126-137 (263)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.77

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$15.45

Record

30%

2961-6982 (9943)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.59

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.3

Record

—

3-14 (17)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.