Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nvidia have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $143 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$142.51

Combined PnL

-$24.77

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$139.58

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.93

Total Shares977

Combined PnL-$24.71

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.7	$79.76	+$0.06	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.91	-$0.06	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.91	-$0.06	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$13.95	$1.57	-$12.38	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$43.86	$0.76	-$7.16	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.09	$0.32	-$2.76	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.12	-$1	16% 22-118 (140)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.11	-$0.9	— 12-4 (16)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.06	-$0.51	12% 20-144 (164)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.7

Value

$79.76

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.95

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$12.38

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.86

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$7.16

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$2.76

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

12-4 (16)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.