Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 22¢ · $908 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 10%
$908.24
-$91.03
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
190h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SteveTheFishCTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $384.79 | $322.9 | -$61.88 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 80.6¢ | $178.44 | $174.7 | -$3.74 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 81.1¢ | $125.7 | $122.37 | -$3.32 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $79.25 | $71.05 | -$8.2 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $66.08 | $63.16 | -$2.92 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $58.69 | $51.06 | -$7.63 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $41.65 | $39.48 | -$2.17 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $26.45 | $30.33 | +$3.88 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $28.02 | $23.69 | -$4.34 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 85.2¢ | $9.8 | $9.08 | -$0.72 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
SteveTheFishCTRInvested
$384.79
Value
$322.9
PnL
-$61.88
Record
—
Invested
$178.44
Value
$174.7
PnL
-$3.74
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$125.7
Value
$122.37
PnL
-$3.32
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.25
Value
$71.05
PnL
-$8.2
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$66.08
Value
$63.16
PnL
-$2.92
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
Invested
$58.69
Value
$51.06
PnL
-$7.63
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$39.48
PnL
-$2.17
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$26.45
Value
$30.33
PnL
+$3.88
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$28.02
Value
$23.69
PnL
-$4.34
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.08
PnL
-$0.72
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.