Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 43¢ · $595 held · ends Dec 1

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$595.36

Combined PnL

$42.71

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 42.5¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$328.78

Total Shares783

Combined PnL+$44.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.35

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$2.23

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WordleAddictCTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$195.57	$231.26	+$35.69	— 0-2 (2)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$130.69	$142.85	+$12.16	41% 3084-4451 (7535)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.6¢	$97.96	$104.14	+$6.17
└ No leg	Noavg 35.5¢	$32.73	$38.72	+$5.99
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$108.55	$105.38	-$3.17	12% 17-121 (138)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.3¢	$80.34	$75.98	-$4.36
└ No leg	Noavg 40.3¢	$28.21	$29.4	+$1.19
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$54.8	$58.8	+$4	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$14.26	$18.14	+$3.89	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$7.92	$10.08	+$2.16	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$11.12	$9.35	-$1.77	78% 18-5 (23)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$27.2	$9	-$0.46	15% 3-17 (20)
SteveTheFishCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.99	$8.39	-$0.6	—
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.1	-$0.2	50% 4577-4487 (9064)

WordleAddictCTR

Invested

$195.57

Value

$231.26

PnL

+$35.69

Record

—

0-2 (2)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$130.69

Value

$142.85

PnL

+$12.16

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

Both legs:

Yes$97.9654.6¢+$6.17

No$32.7335.5¢+$5.99

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$108.55

Value

$105.38

PnL

-$3.17

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

Both legs:

Yes$80.3461.3¢-$4.36

No$28.2140.3¢+$1.19

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$54.8

Value

$58.8

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$18.14

PnL

+$3.89

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$2.16

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.12

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$1.77

Record

78%

18-5 (23)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.2

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

SteveTheFishCTR<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$0.6

Record

—

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

4577-4487 (9064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.5%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$124.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

224.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.