Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 56¢ · $758 held · ends Dec 1

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$757.57

Combined PnL

$166.4

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$408.45

Total Shares698

Combined PnL+$77.94

No6 traders

Total Value$177.89

Total Shares419

Combined PnL+$88.46

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA Hauchn	Yesavg 47.3¢	$330.52	$408.45	+$77.94	37% 64-110 (174)
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$113.99	$113.62	+$3.88	48% 9456-10351 (19807)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.5¢	$58.51	$57.81	+$0.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.7¢	$55.48	$55.81	+$3.88
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 59.3¢	$80.4	$57.6	-$4.09	16% 417-2186 (2603)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.3¢	$35.55	$33	-$1.2
└ No leg	Noavg 41.1¢	$24.66	$24.6	-$2.89
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$124.86	$57.48	+$97.33	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$51.2	$47.83	-$3.37	42% 5364-7391 (12755)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 37.8¢	$36.45	$40.06	+$3.61	40% 845-1277 (2122)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$69.3	$22.25	-$6.54	30% 2226-5258 (7484)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$10.8	$8.2	-$2.6	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$5	$2.08	+$0.03	52% 456-427 (883)

Hauchn

Yes

Invested

$330.52

Value

$408.45

PnL

+$77.94

Record

37%

64-110 (174)

cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100

Invested

$113.99

Value

$113.62

PnL

+$3.88

Record

48%

9456-10351 (19807)

Both legs:

Invested

$80.4

Value

$57.6

PnL

-$4.09

Record

16%

417-2186 (2603)

Both legs:

Yes$35.5559.3¢-$1.2

No$24.6641.1¢-$2.89

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$124.86

Value

$57.48

PnL

+$97.33

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$51.2

Value

$47.83

PnL

-$3.37

Record

42%

5364-7391 (12755)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$36.45

Value

$40.06

PnL

+$3.61

Record

40%

845-1277 (2122)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$69.3

Value

$22.25

PnL

-$6.54

Record

30%

2226-5258 (7484)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$2.6

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

456-427 (883)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.0%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.