Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$551.7

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 95.9¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,443

Combined PnL+$157.13

Yes6 traders

Total Value$162.77

Total Shares732

Combined PnL+$394.57

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4895h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 91¢	$898.2	$941.15	+$42.95	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
ME merod	Noavg 94.7¢	$804.1	$809.78	+$5.68	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
balthazar	Noavg 73.9¢	$378.91	$393.32	+$89.15	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$193.96	$145.37	+$50.41	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 94.2¢	$122.45	$123.96	+$1.5	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.36	$20.02	+$16.66	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$33.98	$19.07	-$0.35	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$10.66	$10.49	-$0.17	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.53	$9.54	+$0.01	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$72.31	$6.48	+$357.78	47% 2062-2331 (4393)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$134.9	$6.36	-$12.74	51% 541-528 (1069)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yes	$3.21	$3.21	+$0	40% 9686-14590 (24276)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$62.86	$1.98	+$1.69	32% 6398-13301 (19699)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$2.15	$1.26	-$0.89	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.09	$0.09	+$0.02	46% 10278-11960 (22238)

korda77

Invested

$898.2

Value

$941.15

PnL

+$42.95

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

merod

Invested

$804.1

Value

$809.78

PnL

+$5.68

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

balthazar

Invested

$378.91

Value

$393.32

PnL

+$89.15

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.96

Value

$145.37

PnL

+$50.41

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

smallreceipt

Invested

$122.45

Value

$123.96

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$20.02

PnL

+$16.66

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$33.98

Value

$19.07

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.49

PnL

-$0.17

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.31

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$357.78

Record

47%

2062-2331 (4393)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.9

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$12.74

Record

51%

541-528 (1069)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9686-14590 (24276)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$62.86

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$1.69

Record

32%

6398-13301 (19699)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.89

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4895h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.