Will Nottingham Forest be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$70.86
80.4¢ → 86.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 79¢ | $113.68 | $402.03 | +$6.07 | 40% 1619-2432 (4051) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $179.93 | $246.05 | +$66.13 | 41% 2188-3126 (5314) |
AU auros2 | No | $222.6 | $222.6 | +$3.77 | — 6-1 (7) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $379.74 | $115.52 | +$13.12 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.3¢ | $86.77 | $89.68 | -$83.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $24.86 | $25.84 | +$96.97 | |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $68.53 | $64.68 | -$5.01 | 64% 1081-614 (1695) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.94 | $0.84 | -$0.1 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
probabilityInvested
$113.68
Value
$402.03
PnL
+$6.07
Record
40%
1619-2432 (4051)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$179.93
Value
$246.05
PnL
+$66.13
Record
41%
2188-3126 (5314)
Invested
$222.6
Value
$222.6
PnL
+$3.77
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$379.74
Value
$115.52
PnL
+$13.12
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.53
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$5.01
Record
64%
1081-614 (1695)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.