Will Northern Ireland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 51¢ · $651 held · ends Dec 2

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$651.14

Combined PnL

$25.33

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 51.4¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$534.87

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL+$17.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$116.27

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$7.45

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

773h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
extractive-manatee	Noavg 56¢	$324.4	$199.34	+$41.8	33% 541-1086 (1627)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 46.3¢	$101.52	$107.44	+$5.92	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 55.1¢	$105.31	$97.45	-$6.81	53% 8223-7324 (15547)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 60.9¢	$106.66	$89.25	-$17.41	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$79.04	$81.6	+$2.56	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 55¢	$26.51	$30.96	+$4.45	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
PI PiEDawg<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$15.43	$14.79	-$0.64	49% 1745-1840 (3585)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.4	$10.2	-$5.2	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$9.38	$8.67	-$0.71	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$7.33	$7.64	+$0.31	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.76	$2.61	-$0.15	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.05	$1.19	+$1.22	77% 12289-3775 (16064)

extractive-manatee

Invested

$324.4

Value

$199.34

PnL

+$41.8

Record

33%

541-1086 (1627)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.52

Value

$107.44

PnL

+$5.92

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$105.31

Value

$97.45

PnL

-$6.81

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

godblessme2026

Invested

$106.66

Value

$89.25

PnL

-$17.41

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$79.04

Value

$81.6

PnL

+$2.56

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$4.45

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

PiEDawg<$100

Invested

$15.43

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$0.64

Record

49%

1745-1840 (3585)

korda77<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$5.2

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.38

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$0.71

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$1.22

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

773h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.6%

51.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.