Will North Texas Mean Green Win the 2026 American Conference?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 75¢ · $503 held · ends Dec 20

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Dec 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$503.03

Combined PnL

$102.09

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 75¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$421.88

Total Shares515

Combined PnL+$115.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$81.15

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$12.93

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Noavg 58.9¢	$175.29	$230.66	+$55.37	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 76.6¢	$251.36	$117.82	+$39.36	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$53.11	$73.4	+$20.29	53% 7408-6544 (13952)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$78.12	$33.29	-$16.97	39% 1109-1746 (2855)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.4¢	$34.5	$18.32	-$16.18	58% 93-66 (159)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$2.89	$11.7	+$8.81	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$2.22	$9	+$6.78	30% 1154-2705 (3859)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$7.41	$8.13	+$0.72	17% 33-165 (198)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$31.57	$0.71	+$3.91	42% 5184-7017 (12201)

0x53eCc53E7

Invested

$175.29

Value

$230.66

PnL

+$55.37

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$251.36

Value

$117.82

PnL

+$39.36

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.11

Value

$73.4

PnL

+$20.29

Record

53%

7408-6544 (13952)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$33.29

PnL

-$16.97

Record

39%

1109-1746 (2855)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$18.32

PnL

-$16.18

Record

58%

93-66 (159)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$8.81

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

PnL

+$6.78

Record

30%

1154-2705 (3859)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$8.13

PnL

+$0.72

Record

17%

33-165 (198)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.57

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$3.91

Record

42%

5184-7017 (12201)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.