Will North Dakota State Bison Win the 2026 Mountain West Championship?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $147 held · ends Dec 19

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$147.12

Combined PnL

-$1.44

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 79¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$116.41

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$0.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$30.71

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$0.76

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$91.66	$91.23	-$0.43	41% 3041-4429 (7470)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$25.43	$25.19	-$0.25	39% 1049-1630 (2679)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$21.03	$21.03	+$0	48% 73-79 (152)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$10.44	$9.67	-$0.76	85% 62-11 (73)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$91.66

Value

$91.23

PnL

-$0.43

Record

41%

3041-4429 (7470)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$25.43

Value

$25.19

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

1049-1630 (2679)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.03

Value

$21.03

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

73-79 (152)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.44

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.76

Record

85%

62-11 (73)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.