Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 100¢ · $410 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$409.64

Combined PnL

-$9.36

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$408.95

Total Shares409

Combined PnL+$16.41

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares1,380

Combined PnL-$25.76

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95.2¢	$198.51	$208.4	+$9.89	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$81.33	$79.96	-$1.27	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$63.94	$69.86	+$5.91	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 96¢	$31.68	$32.98	+$1.3	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96¢	$17.18	$17.75	+$0.57	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.74	$0.19	-$0.55	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$11.66	$0.14	-$15.12	51% 2399-2351 (4750)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.03	$0.14	-$0.9	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	-$4.11	47% 8323-9487 (17810)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$4.98	$0.07	-$4.9	53% 1775-1556 (3331)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.11	$0.03	-$0.08	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.07	$0.02	-$0.06	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.05	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	50% 634-639 (1273)

smallreceipt

Invested

$198.51

Value

$208.4

PnL

+$9.89

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$81.33

Value

$79.96

PnL

-$1.27

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$63.94

Value

$69.86

PnL

+$5.91

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

merod<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$1.3

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.18

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$0.57

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.55

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.66

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$15.12

Record

51%

2399-2351 (4750)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.9

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.11

Record

47%

8323-9487 (17810)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.98

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.9

Record

53%

1775-1556 (3331)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.