Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$3.8K
-$740.36
98.6¢ → 99.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CosmicCedar | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $2.8K | $2.5K | -$392.04 | 60% 759-503 (1262) |
 -Dominus- | Yesavg 97.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$147.69 | 69% 333-153 (486) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 34¢ | $374.63 | $171.09 | -$203.54 | 36% 14555-25992 (40547) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 95¢ | $154.08 | $62.66 | -$3.86 | 50% 1637-1628 (3265) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $25.6 | $23.2 | -$2.4 | 53% 1087-974 (2061) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.4¢ | $6.83 | $9.43 | +$2.94 | 33% 273-565 (838) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $0.22 | $6.45 | +$6.23 | 33% 304-624 (928) |
CosmicCedarInvested
$2,842.41
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$392.04
Record
60%
759-503 (1262)
-Dominus-Invested
$1,214.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$147.69
Record
69%
333-153 (486)
Invested
$374.63
Value
$171.09
PnL
-$203.54
Record
36%
14555-25992 (40547)
Invested
$154.08
Value
$62.66
PnL
-$3.86
Record
50%
1637-1628 (3265)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$23.2
PnL
-$2.4
Record
53%
1087-974 (2061)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$6.83
Value
$9.43
PnL
+$2.94
Record
33%
273-565 (838)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$6.23
Record
33%
304-624 (928)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.