Will no Speaker of the Knesset be elected by February 28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $155 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$155.14
$1.97
97.8¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $39.94 | +$0.34 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $37.8 | $39.94 | +$2.14 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.96 | +$0.26 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.96 | +$0.26 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $15.02 | $15.15 | +$0.13 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.35 | $0.2 | -$1.15 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$39.94
PnL
+$0.34
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$39.94
PnL
+$2.14
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.26
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.26
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$0.13
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$1.15
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.