Will no second mandate to form a government be given after the 2026 Israeli election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $225 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$225.22

Combined PnL

-$6.76

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 52¢

-6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$173.19

Total Shares304

Combined PnL-$6.76

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$52.5	$52.03	-$0.47	4% 1-24 (25)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$30.7	$27.58	-$3.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.9¢	$21.8	$24.45	+$2.65
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$40.46	$37.5	-$2.96	29% 876-2138 (3014)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50¢	$33.34	$35.34	+$2	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59¢	$34.22	$30.74	-$3.48	30% 2667-6201 (8868)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$28.82	$29.45	+$0.63	41% 3104-4461 (7565)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 59¢	$23.6	$21.2	-$2.4	51% 4609-4510 (9119)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$6.09	$5.47	-$0.62	54% 512-439 (951)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 58¢	$4.73	$4.32	-$0.41	46% 329-379 (708)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.81	$3.23	+$0.43	41% 671-970 (1641)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 58¢	$3.52	$3.22	-$0.3	43% 347-453 (800)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.36	$2.71	+$0.36	42% 360-502 (862)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$52.5

Value

$52.03

PnL

-$0.47

Record

1-24 (25)

Both legs:

No$30.759¢-$3.12

Yes$21.841.9¢+$2.65

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$40.46

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$2.96

Record

29%

876-2138 (3014)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.34

Value

$35.34

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$34.22

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$3.48

Record

30%

2667-6201 (8868)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$28.82

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$0.63

Record

41%

3104-4461 (7565)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

4609-4510 (9119)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$0.62

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.41

Record

46%

329-379 (708)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.43

Record

41%

671-970 (1641)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

347-453 (800)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.36

Record

42%

360-502 (862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.0%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$88.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

188.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.