Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$241.87

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 96.1¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,981

Combined PnL+$276.79

Yes4 traders

Total Value$41.66

Total Shares439

Combined PnL-$34.92

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllie	Noavg 89.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$198.85	50% 993-1005 (1998)
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$20.18	54% 44-38 (82)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84.2¢	$620.97	$321.48	+$26.79	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$28.8	$59.4	+$30.6	62% 13200-8112 (21312)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$9.74	$28.66	+$18.92	18% 4107-19274 (23381)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.51	$8.92	-$3.76	36% 2138-3837 (5975)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$33.94	$6.34	-$0.09	48% 9193-10076 (19269)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.5	$3.54	+$0.45	57% 17612-13142 (30754)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$117	$2.85	-$49.65	17% 260-1312 (1572)
UdonsanCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$0.95	$1.24	-$0.44	79% 308-83 (391)

smellyEllie

Invested

$2,771.14

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$198.85

Record

50%

993-1005 (1998)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Invested

$1,475.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$20.18

Record

54%

44-38 (82)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$620.97

Value

$321.48

PnL

+$26.79

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$30.6

Record

62%

13200-8112 (21312)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.74

Value

$28.66

PnL

+$18.92

Record

18%

4107-19274 (23381)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.51

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$3.76

Record

36%

2138-3837 (5975)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$33.94

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

9193-10076 (19269)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

17612-13142 (30754)

SulkingCryptoCTR

Yes

Invested

$117

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$49.65

Record

17%

260-1312 (1572)

UdonsanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.44

Record

79%

308-83 (391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.