Will no President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies be elected by February 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $135 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$135.49
-$6.56
91.1¢ → 83.7¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $67.5 | $62.81 | -$4.69 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $55.8 | $50.25 | -$5.55 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $9.91 | $13.96 | +$4.05 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.41 | $4.4 | -$0.01 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.42 | $4.07 | -$0.35 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
Invested
$67.5
Value
$62.81
PnL
-$4.69
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$55.8
Value
$50.25
PnL
-$5.55
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$13.96
PnL
+$4.05
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.01
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.35
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.