Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 43¢ · $6K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.6K
$220.7
38.9¢ → 42.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $4.7K | $4.3K | -$147.79 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$46.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$194.33 | |
GM gm-gg-gnCTR | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $922.44 | $772.87 | +$126.22 | — 7-2 (9) |
FB fbetCTR | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $285.62 | $392.14 | +$106.52 | 67% 16-8 (24) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $135.22 | $127.58 | -$7.64 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $55.59 | $36.52 | -$4.41 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$4,659.12
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$147.79
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Both legs:
Invested
$922.44
Value
$772.87
PnL
+$126.22
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$285.62
Value
$392.14
PnL
+$106.52
Record
67%
16-8 (24)
Invested
$135.22
Value
$127.58
PnL
-$7.64
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$55.59
Value
$36.52
PnL
-$4.41
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.