Will no new permanent NVIDIA CEO be named by December 31, 2028?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 93¢ · $644 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$644.47
-$373.5
94.6¢ → 93.3¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 94.7¢ | $329.16 | $308.75 | -$7.13 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 94.3¢ | $182.23 | $178.88 | -$2.37 | 65% 4263-2287 (6550) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $19.83 | $69.87 | +$58.19 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $57 | $55.83 | -$1.17 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $972.21 | $18.22 | -$327.1 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $498.24 | $10.96 | -$82.58 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $16.63 | $1.96 | -$11.34 | 29% 630-1570 (2200) |
Invested
$329.16
Value
$308.75
PnL
-$7.13
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$182.23
Value
$178.88
PnL
-$2.37
Record
65%
4263-2287 (6550)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$19.83
Value
$69.87
PnL
+$58.19
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$57
Value
$55.83
PnL
-$1.17
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
balthazarCTRInvested
$972.21
Value
$18.22
PnL
-$327.1
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
Invested
$498.24
Value
$10.96
PnL
-$82.58
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
Invested
$16.63
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$11.34
Record
29%
630-1570 (2200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.