Will no Israeli government be formed after the 2026 Knesset election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $124 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$124.12
-$20.55
69.4¢ → 60¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $38.9 | $37.24 | -$1.66 | 41% 3063-4447 (7510) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $35 | $29 | -$6 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $35.5 | $29 | -$6.5 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $45.54 | $26.68 | -$6.46 | — 1-18 (19) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.12 | $2.2 | +$0.07 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
Invested
$38.9
Value
$37.24
PnL
-$1.66
Record
41%
3063-4447 (7510)
Invested
$35
Value
$29
PnL
-$6
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$35.5
Value
$29
PnL
-$6.5
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
Invested
$45.54
Value
$26.68
PnL
-$6.46
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.