Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 85¢ · $933 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$933.49
-$33.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-42 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
443h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 89¢ | $770.27 | $731.48 | -$38.79 | 54% 214-179 (393) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $176.88 | $169.75 | +$26.5 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.2¢ | $101.12 | $116.13 | +$5.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12¢ | $45.78 | $53.62 | +$20.63 | |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $18.7 | $20.3 | +$1.6 | 18% 3803-17230 (21033) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $5.22 | $6.36 | +$1.14 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.6 | $5.6 | +$3 | 50% 1532-1505 (3037) |
Invested
$770.27
Value
$731.48
PnL
-$38.79
Record
54%
214-179 (393)
Invested
$176.88
Value
$169.75
PnL
+$26.5
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
Both legs:
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$20.3
PnL
+$1.6
Record
18%
3803-17230 (21033)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$5.22
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$1.14
Record
20%
312-1280 (1592)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$3
Record
50%
1532-1505 (3037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.