Will Nikolas Ferreira be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $165 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$165.29
-$5.37
92.8¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $69 | $67.5 | -$1.5 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $56.2 | $54 | -$2.2 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18 | -$0.6 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $15.45 | $14.71 | -$0.73 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.83 | $4.73 | -$0.11 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $3.73 | $3.73 | -$0 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.76 | $2.53 | -$0.23 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
Invested
$69
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$56.2
Value
$54
PnL
-$2.2
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.6
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$14.71
PnL
-$0.73
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.11
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$3.73
PnL
-$0
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.23
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.