Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nikesh Arora be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $289 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$289.13

Combined PnL

$247.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$289.13

Total Shares4,448

Combined PnL+$247.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$10.21	$70.98	+$60.77	52% 1617-1492 (3109)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$69.37	+$59.4	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.69	$32.63	+$27.94	47% 23-26 (49)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.49	$31.2	+$26.71	38% 78-128 (206)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$16.25	+$13.91	0% 0-98 (98)
FL FlobodanCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$16.25	+$13.91	—
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.3	$16	+$13.7	30% 2985-7096 (10081)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$6.83	+$5.84	57% 530-394 (924)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.85	$5.91	+$5.06	18% 821-3646 (4467)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$5.2	+$4.45	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$5.2	+$4.45	— 10-1 (11)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.72	$5.02	+$4.3	36% 3514-6115 (9629)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.7	$4.88	+$4.17	28% 112-295 (407)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.43	$2.97	+$2.55	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.46	+$0.39	32% 553-1159 (1712)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.21

Value

$70.98

PnL

+$60.77

Record

52%

1617-1492 (3109)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$69.37

PnL

+$59.4

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.69

Value

$32.63

PnL

+$27.94

Record

47%

23-26 (49)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$26.71

Record

38%

78-128 (206)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$13.91

Record

0-98 (98)

FlobodanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$13.91

Record

—

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$16

PnL

+$13.7

Record

30%

2985-7096 (10081)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$5.84

Record

57%

530-394 (924)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$5.06

Record

18%

821-3646 (4467)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$4.45

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$4.45

Record

—

10-1 (11)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$4.3

Record

36%

3514-6115 (9629)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$4.17

Record

28%

112-295 (407)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$2.55

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.46

PnL

+$0.39

Record

32%

553-1159 (1712)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4594.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

4694.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.