Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$250.46
$0.5
98.5¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.62 | $124.62 | +$0 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.78 | $59.78 | +$0 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
SH shovelingdigging<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $55.39 | $58.32 | +$2.93 | — 1-6 (7) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $6.79 | $6.82 | +$0.03 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $2.4 | $0.63 | -$1.77 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $0.98 | $0.27 | -$0.7 | 24% 82-265 (347) |
Invested
$124.62
Value
$124.62
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.78
Value
$59.78
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$55.39
Value
$58.32
PnL
+$2.93
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.82
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$1.77
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$0.7
Record
24%
82-265 (347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.