Will Nico Caprez be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $121 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$120.92

Combined PnL

-$11.61

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 98.6¢

+82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$110.92

Total Shares221

Combined PnL-$9.43

Yes5 traders

Total Value$9.99

Total Shares983

Combined PnL-$2.18

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$101.39	$101.42	+$0.03	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$7	+$0.46	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.97	$6.5	-$6.47	47% 506-567 (1073)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.99	$3	-$2.99	44% 501-627 (1128)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$1.54	+$0.1	43% 16-21 (37)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.17	$0.83	+$0.66	12% 34-257 (291)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.81	$0.55	-$3.4	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.07	+$0	35% 512-942 (1454)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$101.39

Value

$101.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

PnL

+$0.46

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$12.97

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$6.47

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

PnL

-$2.99

Record

44%

501-627 (1128)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.66

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$3.4

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.