Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 80¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$11.93

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 79.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,234

Combined PnL+$97.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$361.34

Total Shares1,445

Combined PnL-$109.12

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

796h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 80.7¢	$1.1K	$994.31	-$77.7	56% 15814-12510 (28324)
smellyEllie	Noavg 73.4¢	$4.0K	$694.87	+$187.74	50% 1008-1023 (2031)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yes	$350.75	$350.75	-$107.59	56% 18263-14185 (32448)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$445.98	$337.02	+$35.25	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.1¢	$178.68	$212.42	+$14.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$136.75	$124.59	+$20.38
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$231.5	$150	-$30.54	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.7¢	$112.03	$112.5	+$0.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.7¢	$49.1	$37.5	-$30.92
GH ghorrock	Noavg 78.6¢	$241.11	$36.22	-$12.43	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 69¢	$21.48	$21	-$0.48	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$10.59	$10.59	-$1.53	49% 123-126 (249)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	No	$17.86	$0.89	+$0.07	25% 1703-5171 (6874)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,072.01

Value

$994.31

PnL

-$77.7

Record

56%

15814-12510 (28324)

smellyEllie

Invested

$4,030.85

Value

$694.87

PnL

+$187.74

Record

50%

1008-1023 (2031)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$350.75

Value

$350.75

PnL

-$107.59

Record

56%

18263-14185 (32448)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$445.98

Value

$337.02

PnL

+$35.25

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$178.6863.1¢+$14.87

Yes$136.7527.4¢+$20.38

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$231.5

Value

$150

PnL

-$30.54

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

No$112.0374.7¢+$0.38

Yes$49.132.7¢-$30.92

ghorrock

Invested

$241.11

Value

$36.22

PnL

-$12.43

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$21.48

Value

$21

PnL

-$0.48

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.59

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$1.53

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$17.86

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.07

Record

25%

1703-5171 (6874)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

796h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.5%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.