Will New York Giants win the 2026 NFC East?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$326.2
25.9¢ → 50¢
+93% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $1.2K | $463.27 | -$89.66 | 37% 16394-28177 (44571) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.9¢ | $512.46 | $356.4 | -$248.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $50.96 | $106.88 | +$158.67 | |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $233 | $396.1 | +$163.1 | 50% 1658-1653 (3311) |
 probability | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $87.23 | $252.69 | +$163.1 | 42% 1370-1924 (3294) |
Invested
$1,159.24
Value
$463.27
PnL
-$89.66
Record
37%
16394-28177 (44571)
Both legs:
Invested
$233
Value
$396.1
PnL
+$163.1
Record
50%
1658-1653 (3311)
probabilityInvested
$87.23
Value
$252.69
PnL
+$163.1
Record
42%
1370-1924 (3294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.