Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 18¢ · $901 held · ends Jun 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$901.19
-$153.31
30.6¢ → 18¢
-41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $1.1K | $609 | -$128.03 | 41% 1950-2755 (4705) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $222.95 | $268.05 | +$45.1 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
AV aviatoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $48.69 | $21.41 | -$27.28 | 85% 2417-437 (2854) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $25.37 | $2.09 | -$23.28 | 53% 1087-974 (2061) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $21.23 | $0.65 | -$19.81 | 77% 11053-3381 (14434) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$1,124.22
Value
$609
PnL
-$128.03
Record
41%
1950-2755 (4705)
Invested
$222.95
Value
$268.05
PnL
+$45.1
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
Invested
$48.69
Value
$21.41
PnL
-$27.28
Record
85%
2417-437 (2854)
Invested
$25.37
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$23.28
Record
53%
1087-974 (2061)
Invested
$21.23
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$19.81
Record
77%
11053-3381 (14434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.