Will Nepal win Eurovision Asia 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $284 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$283.62
-$9.97
98.9¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.7¢ | $114.26 | $115.61 | +$1.35 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $74.18 | $74.51 | +$0.34 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.97 | +$0.21 | 27% 973-2599 (3572) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $29.74 | $29.97 | +$0.23 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $24.7 | $24.98 | +$0.28 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $4.96 | $5 | +$0.04 | 37% 165-281 (446) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $15.49 | $3.47 | -$12.02 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.5 | $0.11 | -$0.39 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
Invested
$114.26
Value
$115.61
PnL
+$1.35
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$74.18
Value
$74.51
PnL
+$0.34
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.21
Record
27%
973-2599 (3572)
Invested
$29.74
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.23
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
Invested
$24.7
Value
$24.98
PnL
+$0.28
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
165-281 (446)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$12.02
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.39
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.