Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nebraska win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $201 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$201.02

Combined PnL

$180.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$194.98

Total Shares2,074

Combined PnL+$177.94

No1 trader

Total Value$6.04

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$2.15

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.3	$139.87	+$127.57	39% 1109-1746 (2855)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$211.69	$26.03	+$24.72	18% 858-4027 (4885)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$95.56	$17.42	+$15.75	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
CU CustomTrader<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.23	$6.04	+$2.15	— 1-6 (7)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.37	$4.23	+$3.86	17% 95-455 (550)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.25	$2.89	+$2.63	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$1.88	+$1.71	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.16	$1.86	+$1.69	29% 270-666 (936)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.81	+$0	23% 26-86 (112)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$12.3

Value

$139.87

PnL

+$127.57

Record

39%

1109-1746 (2855)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$211.69

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$24.72

Record

18%

858-4027 (4885)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.56

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$15.75

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

CustomTrader<$100

Invested

$7.23

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$2.15

Record

—

1-6 (7)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$3.86

Record

17%

95-455 (550)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$2.63

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$1.71

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$1.69

Record

29%

270-666 (936)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

26-86 (112)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.