Will Natus Vincere Win the IEM Beijing 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$5.2K
$581.73
76.6¢ → 68¢
-11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+33 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DumplingBMF | Noavg 76¢ | $2.6K | $3.4K | +$800.02 | 69% 1892-868 (2760) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 85.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.2K | -$286.01 | 53% 8619-7695 (16314) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67.4¢ | $353.23 | $194.59 | -$25.11 | 34% 19419-36966 (56385) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 74.6¢ | $134.29 | $122.4 | -$11.89 | 53% 23824-20966 (44790) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493 | Noavg 8.1¢ | $14.05 | $101.95 | +$108.47 | 53% 4540-4033 (8573) |
LP lpgb | Noavg 74.5¢ | $249.13 | $52.75 | +$0.04 | 27% 614-1677 (2291) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $48.1 | $16.6 | -$3.8 | 17% 396-1983 (2379) |
DumplingBMFInvested
$2,649.96
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$800.02
Record
69%
1892-868 (2760)
Invested
$1,731.41
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$286.01
Record
53%
8619-7695 (16314)
Invested
$353.23
Value
$194.59
PnL
-$25.11
Record
34%
19419-36966 (56385)
Invested
$134.29
Value
$122.4
PnL
-$11.89
Record
53%
23824-20966 (44790)
Invested
$14.05
Value
$101.95
PnL
+$108.47
Record
53%
4540-4033 (8573)
Invested
$249.13
Value
$52.75
PnL
+$0.04
Record
27%
614-1677 (2291)
Invested
$48.1
Value
$16.6
PnL
-$3.8
Record
17%
396-1983 (2379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.