Will Naftali Bennett be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $742 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$742.19
-$1.99
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $377.04 | $375.96 | -$1.08 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $179.6 | $179.12 | -$0.48 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $89.86 | $89.55 | -$0.31 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.9 | $39.8 | -$0.1 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.85 | -$0.09 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.96 | $13.93 | -$0.03 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.96 | -$0.02 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.67 | $5.66 | -$0.01 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.23 | $0.36 | +$0.12 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
Invested
$377.04
Value
$375.96
PnL
-$1.08
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
balthazarInvested
$179.6
Value
$179.12
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$89.86
Value
$89.55
PnL
-$0.31
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$39.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.09
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$13.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.66
PnL
-$0.01
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0.12
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.