Will "N3on's Team" win Nozempic 2?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $466 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$466.48

Combined PnL

-$53.43

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 97.6¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$344.62

Total Shares375

Combined PnL-$40.6

Yes1 trader

Total Value$20.55

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$12.84

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Relaccsed	Noavg 88.7¢	$227.34	$180.62	-$46.72	— 10-1 (11)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$62.04	$101.31	+$39.26	13% 26-177 (203)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$30	$61.5	+$31.5
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$32.04	$39.81	+$7.76
TA taemaxx<$100	Noavg 90¢	$54.68	$60	+$5.32	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$49.45	$49.7	+$0.25	43% 757-1024 (1781)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90¢	$30.6	$33.58	+$2.98	47% 448-500 (948)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$40.89	$20.55	-$12.84	24% 82-266 (348)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 66¢	$10	$10.38	+$0.38	41% 3158-4508 (7666)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 87¢	$13.15	$10.35	-$2.8	27% 940-2515 (3455)

Relaccsed

Invested

$227.34

Value

$180.62

PnL

-$46.72

Record

—

10-1 (11)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Invested

$62.04

Value

$101.31

PnL

+$39.26

Record

13%

26-177 (203)

Both legs:

Yes$3010¢+$31.5

No$32.0464¢+$7.76

taemaxx<$100

Invested

$54.68

Value

$60

PnL

+$5.32

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

43%

757-1024 (1781)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$33.58

PnL

+$2.98

Record

47%

448-500 (948)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.89

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$12.84

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

41%

3158-4508 (7666)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$13.15

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$2.8

Record

27%

940-2515 (3455)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.