Will "N3on's Team" lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 61¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$309.71
-$13.72
69.2¢ → 61¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 69.9¢ | $217.24 | $191.4 | -$25.84 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $69.18 | $81.76 | +$12.58 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $22.76 | $22.44 | -$0.32 | — 0-10 (10) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $30.3 | $14.11 | -$0.14 | — 1-9 (10) |
Invested
$217.24
Value
$191.4
PnL
-$25.84
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$69.18
Value
$81.76
PnL
+$12.58
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$22.76
Value
$22.44
PnL
-$0.32
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$30.3
Value
$14.11
PnL
-$0.14
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.