Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.54

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 98.2¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,174

Combined PnL-$8.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.14

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$0.57

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$48.31	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.5¢	$581.83	$575.48	-$6.35	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 98.9¢	$438.08	$435.98	-$2.1	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 97.9¢	$412.06	$412.9	+$36.55	42% 10359-14389 (24748)
ME merod	Noavg 97.5¢	$151.13	$152.52	+$1.4	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.6¢	$125.69	$104.73	+$0.01	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$83.9	$83.73	-$0.17	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$81.3	$80.69	-$0.62	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$79.02	$78.72	-$0.38	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$74.49	$66.8	+$4.31	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$59.32	$59.06	-$0.26	38% 3073-4954 (8027)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.58	$59.04	-$0.54	33% 456-938 (1394)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 94.2¢	$188.4	$15.1	+$8.4	55% 3145-2528 (5673)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.84	-$0.06	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$1.56	$1.56	+$0.17	50% 137-137 (274)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1	$1	+$0.11	6% 14-231 (245)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.25	$0.55	+$0.29	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	48% 23-25 (48)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,994.08

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$48.31

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

donthackme

Invested

$581.83

Value

$575.48

PnL

-$6.35

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

smallreceipt

Invested

$438.08

Value

$435.98

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

influenz.eth

Invested

$412.06

Value

$412.9

PnL

+$36.55

Record

42%

10359-14389 (24748)

merod

Invested

$151.13

Value

$152.52

PnL

+$1.4

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

ghorrock

Invested

$125.69

Value

$104.73

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$83.9

Value

$83.73

PnL

-$0.17

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$81.3

Value

$80.69

PnL

-$0.62

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.02

Value

$78.72

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$74.49

Value

$66.8

PnL

+$4.31

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$59.32

Value

$59.06

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

3073-4954 (8027)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.58

Value

$59.04

PnL

-$0.54

Record

33%

456-938 (1394)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$188.4

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$8.4

Record

55%

3145-2528 (5673)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

137-137 (274)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.11

Record

14-231 (245)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.29

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

23-25 (48)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.