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6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 22
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$390.55
$15.57
90.6¢ → 95.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 89¢ | $178 | $196 | +$18 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 92.6¢ | $115.7 | $108.75 | -$6.95 | 27% 940-2516 (3456) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $54.38 | $58.8 | +$4.42 | 25% 83-244 (327) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.36 | $10.97 | -$1.39 | 40% 1463-2159 (3622) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $9.8 | +$1.1 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $5.85 | $6.23 | +$0.38 | 26% 864-2483 (3347) |
HaradwaithInvested
$178
Value
$196
PnL
+$18
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$115.7
Value
$108.75
PnL
-$6.95
Record
27%
940-2516 (3456)
Invested
$54.38
Value
$58.8
PnL
+$4.42
Record
25%
83-244 (327)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$10.97
PnL
-$1.39
Record
40%
1463-2159 (3622)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$6.23
PnL
+$0.38
Record
26%
864-2483 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.