Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 95¢ · $285 held · ends Nov 22

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$284.81

Combined PnL

-$1.93

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$256.76

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$27.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$28.04

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$29.76

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 93.7¢	$126.46	$126.46	-$0	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$93.25	$89.15	+$21.47	34% 234-460 (694)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 79¢	$24.47	$27.94	+$4.3	35% 251-467 (718)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$43.08	$14.23	-$17.79	32% 168-365 (533)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$236.54	$10.8	-$8.85	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 79¢	$8.03	$9.53	+$1.49	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.1	$3.68	+$0.58	51% 809-769 (1578)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$4.71	$2.31	-$2.4	16% 24-123 (147)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.42	$0.7	-$0.72	43% 5075-6626 (11701)

graynotebook19

Invested

$126.46

Value

$126.46

PnL

-$0

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$93.25

Value

$89.15

PnL

+$21.47

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$24.47

Value

$27.94

PnL

+$4.3

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.08

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$17.79

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.54

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$8.85

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$1.49

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.58

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$2.4

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.72

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.