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5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $592 held · ends Nov 22

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$592.36

Combined PnL

-$9.53

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 92.8¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$455.89

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$0.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$10.21

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 94.2¢	$255.46	$251.8	-$3.66	30% 253-582 (835)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$278.01	$136.13	-$12.77	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.5¢	$91.09	$103.83	+$19.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.1¢	$64.16	$32.3	-$31.86
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 85.9¢	$116.01	$125.42	+$9.4	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$50.94	$47.69	-$3.25	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$22.95	$21.7	-$1.25	58% 767-547 (1314)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.84	$9.29	-$0.55	35% 290-535 (825)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$4.71	$0.2	-$4.52	17% 25-124 (149)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$22.66	$0.12	-$5.39	43% 5103-6732 (11835)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$0.31	$0.01	-$0.3	29% 1113-2674 (3787)

smallreceipt

Invested

$255.46

Value

$251.8

PnL

-$3.66

Record

30%

253-582 (835)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$278.01

Value

$136.13

PnL

-$12.77

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

Both legs:

No$91.0981.5¢+$19.09

Yes$64.1614.1¢-$31.86

graynotebook19

Invested

$116.01

Value

$125.42

PnL

+$9.4

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$50.94

Value

$47.69

PnL

-$3.25

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$22.95

Value

$21.7

PnL

-$1.25

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.55

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$4.52

Record

17%

25-124 (149)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.66

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.39

Record

43%

5103-6732 (11835)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.3

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.0%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.