Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 13 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 36¢ · $923 held · ended Nov 1

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$923.1

Combined PnL

-$230.14

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 36¢

-23% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$899.01

Total Shares2,680

Combined PnL-$230.42

Yes6 traders

Total Value$24.09

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.28

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Noavg 48.7¢	$504.56	$331.2	-$152.66	62% 368-226 (594)
GO godblessme2026CTR	Noavg 35.4¢	$224.01	$159.01	+$56.87	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
LP lpgbCTR	Noavg 52¢	$116.36	$82.74	-$33.62	28% 485-1268 (1753)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 52.1¢	$108.72	$77.21	-$31.51	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$287.23	$63.13	-$4.64	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$72.74	$41.31	-$31.44	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$75.77	$38.65	-$37.12	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$45.76	$33.6	-$7.89	47% 8368-9535 (17903)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 13.4¢	$14.01	$26.47	+$12.45	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$25.83	$21.54	-$2.47	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$16.25	$19.4	+$3.15	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$9.22	$6.98	-$0.16	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$3.88	$4.03	+$0.15	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$3.86	$4.01	+$0.15	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$3.9	$3.84	-$0.06	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.3¢	$3.42	$3.62	+$0.2	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.56	$3.17	+$0.61	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.61	$1.61	-$0	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$1.6	-$2.15	32% 2522-5398 (7920)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Invested

$504.56

Value

$331.2

PnL

-$152.66

Record

62%

368-226 (594)

godblessme2026CTR

Invested

$224.01

Value

$159.01

PnL

+$56.87

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

lpgbCTR

Invested

$116.36

Value

$82.74

PnL

-$33.62

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$108.72

Value

$77.21

PnL

-$31.51

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$287.23

Value

$63.13

PnL

-$4.64

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$72.74

Value

$41.31

PnL

-$31.44

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$75.77

Value

$38.65

PnL

-$37.12

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$45.76

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$7.89

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$14.01

Value

$26.47

PnL

+$12.45

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$25.83

Value

$21.54

PnL

-$2.47

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$16.25

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$3.15

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.22

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.16

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.88

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$2.15

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.