Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 22

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$296.45

Combined PnL

-$74.88

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$257.02

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$0.47

Yes4 traders

Total Value$39.43

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$75.36

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.9¢	$134.87	$134.87	+$0	34% 234-460 (694)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$77.87	$78.27	+$0.4	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$87.73	$38.97	-$46.26	39% 3638-5769 (9407)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.75	$29.8	+$0.05	34% 275-525 (800)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.14	$10.16	+$0.02	51% 807-768 (1575)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.92	$3.93	+$0.01	46% 1098-1303 (2401)
GO god83743894CTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$114.43	$0.29	-$21.27	35% 250-467 (717)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$5.14	$0.11	-$5.03	31% 165-364 (529)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$2.86	$0.06	-$2.8	43% 5073-6616 (11689)

quietparcel

Invested

$134.87

Value

$134.87

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$77.87

Value

$78.27

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.73

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$46.26

Record

39%

3638-5769 (9407)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

807-768 (1575)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

god83743894CTR

Yes

Invested

$114.43

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$21.27

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.14

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$5.03

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.8

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.