Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $482 held · ends Nov 22

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$481.74

Combined PnL

-$38.55

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 96.7¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$433.34

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$1.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$48.39

Total Shares358

Combined PnL-$40.23

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nostdam	Noavg 93.9¢	$187.8	$193.5	+$5.7	9% 11-116 (127)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97.9¢	$122.44	$120.94	-$1.5	29% 232-564 (796)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$86.66	$47.63	-$36.53	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$41.88	$41.06	-$0.82	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$35.92	$35.18	-$0.74	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.68	$29.03	-$0.65	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.07	$9.84	-$0.23	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$3.89	$3.8	-$0.08	50% 697-689 (1386)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$5.14	$0.76	-$3.7	31% 146-327 (473)

Nostdam

Invested

$187.8

Value

$193.5

PnL

+$5.7

Record

11-116 (127)

smallreceipt

Invested

$122.44

Value

$120.94

PnL

-$1.5

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.66

Value

$47.63

PnL

-$36.53

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$41.88

Value

$41.06

PnL

-$0.82

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$35.92

Value

$35.18

PnL

-$0.74

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.03

PnL

-$0.65

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.14

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$3.7

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.