Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will MrBeast's next video get at least 55 million views on day 1?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 16

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$314.88

Combined PnL

$56.85

Smart Money Entry

21.4¢ → 4.5¢

-79% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$256.2

Total Shares270

Combined PnL+$53.42

Yes3 traders

Total Value$58.68

Total Shares1,076

Combined PnL+$3.43

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 75¢	$235.05	$190	+$51.18	32% 224-485 (709)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$301.98	$41.56	+$4.41	11% 15-117 (132)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$38	$38.2	+$0.2	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$152.55	$17.02	-$0.81	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.8	$9.5	+$0.7	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$9.3	+$0.6	33% 309-636 (945)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.42	$4.88	+$0.46	49% 845-866 (1711)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.04	$4.32	+$0.28	50% 780-769 (1549)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.28	$0.11	-$0.17	42% 1655-2297 (3952)

Haradwaith

Invested

$235.05

Value

$190

PnL

+$51.18

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$301.98

Value

$41.56

PnL

+$4.41

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$38.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.55

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$0.81

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.6

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.17

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.