Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 16

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$160.91

Combined PnL

$14.74

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 96¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$103.61

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$1.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.29

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$13.41

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$38.5	$39.1	+$0.6	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$27.61	$34.51	+$6.9	11% 15-117 (132)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$15.99	$22.39	+$6.4	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$22.19	$22.2	+$0.01	33% 313-636 (949)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18.35	$18.89	+$0.54	36% 268-480 (748)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.96	+$0.04	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.2	+$0.1	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.22	$4.27	+$0.05	51% 872-825 (1697)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.28	$0.39	+$0.11	42% 1658-2297 (3955)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.5

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.61

Value

$34.51

PnL

+$6.9

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.99

Value

$22.39

PnL

+$6.4

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$22.19

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

313-636 (949)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$0.54

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.