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8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 16

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$115.19

Combined PnL

-$7.72

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 90.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$100.32

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$4.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.87

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$3.7

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$36.8	$36	-$0.8	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$18	-$0.6	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$18	-$0.4	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$12.15	$9.66	-$2.39	32% 224-485 (709)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.55	$8.95	-$0.59	36% 265-479 (744)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$8.5	-$1	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$6.52	$5.21	-$1.3	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.25	-$0.45	36% 309-548 (857)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 85¢	$3.94	$3.97	+$0.02	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92¢	$2.85	$2.65	-$0.2	49% 845-866 (1711)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.8

Value

$36

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.6

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.4

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$2.39

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.59

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$1

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.52

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$1.3

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

309-548 (857)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.