Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 52¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 16

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$79.98

Combined PnL

$3.2

Research grade

AvoidNo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$70.4

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.57

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$4.15

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56¢	$22.4	$22.2	-$0.2	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$11.1	+$0.1	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$15.13	$9.57	+$4.15	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$8.7	-$0.8	38% 286-470 (756)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11.28	$6.54	+$3.12	42% 1655-2297 (3952)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$6.5	-$1.8	30% 1134-2678 (3812)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.35	-$0.35	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.47	$3.34	-$1.13	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.81	$2.84	+$0.03	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.78	$2.81	+$0.03	61% 790-508 (1298)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 63¢	$1.96	$2.02	+$0.06	49% 816-837 (1653)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.13

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$4.15

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$11.28

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$3.12

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$1.8

Record

30%

1134-2678 (3812)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$1.13

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.