Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 73¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 16

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$206.07

Combined PnL

-$10.66

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 72.5¢

-6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$204.62

Total Shares281

Combined PnL-$12.59

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.45

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$1.93

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 88¢	$176	$75.04	-$15.91	32% 224-485 (709)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 55¢	$26.32	$36.61	+$10.29	65% 4340-2358 (6698)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75¢	$30	$28	-$2	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$20.55	$17.5	-$3.05	32% 281-585 (866)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$14	-$0.8	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$8.69	$9.85	+$1.16	58% 787-561 (1348)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$8.12	$7.65	-$0.47	30% 1134-2678 (3812)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$7.3	-$1.6	36% 309-548 (857)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.39	$6.99	-$0.4	49% 816-837 (1653)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.48	$1.67	+$0.19	42% 1655-2297 (3952)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$24.5	$1.45	+$1.93	39% 3701-5905 (9606)

Haradwaith

Invested

$176

Value

$75.04

PnL

-$15.91

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$26.32

Value

$36.61

PnL

+$10.29

Record

65%

4340-2358 (6698)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$28

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.55

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$3.05

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.8

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.69

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.12

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.47

Record

30%

1134-2678 (3812)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$1.6

Record

36%

309-548 (857)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.39

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.19

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$1.93

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.