Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 59¢ · $581 held · ended Nov 1

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$581.36

Combined PnL

-$97.84

Research grade

AvoidNo at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$385.1

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$114.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.74

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$16.48

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Noavg 59.9¢	$393.65	$385.1	-$114.33	60% 314-210 (524)
RO rocky42019ARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$78.37	$125.51	+$47.15	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$49.25	$85.83	+$36.58
└ No leg	Noavg 43¢	$29.12	$39.68	+$10.56
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 53.4¢	$104.67	$58.18	+$18.41	36% 16052-28068 (44120)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$14.49	$12.56	-$1.93	53% 6687-5886 (12573)

shovelingdigging

Invested

$393.65

Value

$385.1

PnL

-$114.33

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

rocky42019ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.37

Value

$125.51

PnL

+$47.15

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Both legs:

Invested

$104.67

Value

$58.18

PnL

+$18.41

Record

36%

16052-28068 (44120)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.49

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$1.93

Record

53%

6687-5886 (12573)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.8%

58.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.