Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 16

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$68

Combined PnL

-$5.16

Research grade

AvoidNo at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$49.9

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$8.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.1

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$3.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$36	$30.8	-$5.2	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$18.95	$11.57	+$2.35	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$13.33	$11.4	-$1.93	52% 837-762 (1599)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9	$7.7	-$1.3	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
AL AlanCurtisCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$5.26	$6.08	+$0.81	1% 1-116 (117)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.35	$0.45	+$0.1	36% 268-480 (748)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$5.2

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.95

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$2.35

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.33

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$1.93

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$1.3

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

AlanCurtisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.26

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$0.81

Record

1-116 (117)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.